A common source for the destructive earthquakes in the volcanic island of Ischia (Southern Italy): insights from historical and recent seismicity

AbstractThe island of Ischia, located in the Gulf of Naples, represents an unusual case of resurgent caldera where small-to-moderate magnitude volcano-tectonic earthquakes generate large damage and catastrophic effects, as in the case of 4 March 1881 (Imax-VIII-IXMCS) and 28 July 1883 (Imax X-XI MCS) historical earthquakes, and of the recent 21 August 2017 MW = 3.9, event. All these earthquakes struck the northern area of the island. With about 65,000 inhabitants, Ischia is a popular touristic destination for thermals baths, hosting more than 3,000,000 visitors per year, thus representing a high seismic risk area. Assessing its seismic potential appears a fundamental goal and, to this end, the estimate of the magnitude of significant historical events and the characterization of their source are crucial. We report here a reassessment of historical data of damage of 1881 and 1883 earthquakes to evaluate the main source parameters of these events (obtained with the BOXER and EXISM software) and quantitatively compare, for the first time, the results with the source characteristics, obtained from instrumental data, of the recent 2017 earthquake. The results allowed us to assess the location, as well as the possible dimension and the related maximum magnitude, of the seismogenic structure responsible for such damaging earthquakes. Our results also provide an additional framework to define the mechanisms leading to earthquakes associated with the dynamics of calderas

InSAR full-resolution analysis of the 2017–2018 M>6 earthquakes in Mexico

Abstract The present study analyzes the sequence of 4 important earthquakes occurred in Mexico from September 2017 to February 2018, exploiting the large availability of InSAR data and analytical models, with a twofold goal: to privede new solutions for seismogenic sources, completely independent from seismological data, and to discuss methodological aspects related to the non-linear and linear inverse problem. We review and update an earlier study, focused on the concept of resolution, showing the level of detail achievable in the investigation of the slip distribution based on geodetic observations, according to data availability, fault locations and event magnitudes. We further give new insights into the relationship between fault resolution and parameter uncertainty, demonstrating that a realistic assessment is strictly related to a proper fault subdivision. We eventually discourage the use of qualitative approaches, such as the checkerboard test, to evaluate the data resolving power and suggest the adoption of quantitative indicators, like the Dirichlet Spread Function, normalized, easy to calculate and mathematically robust

Editorial Expression of Concern: Coincident locations of rupture nucleation during the 2019 Le Teil earthquake, France and maximum stress change from local cement quarrying

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Coincident locations of rupture nucleation during the 2019 Le Teil earthquake, France and maximum stress change from local cement quarrying

AbstractEarthquake occurrence is ultimately controlled by tectonic stress load. Nevertheless, the 2019, Mw = 4.9, Le Teil earthquake in southern France occurred in an area where strain rates are relatively low. Human operations can produce increases in stress load and degradation of strength on nearby active faults, which raises the potential for failure. Here we present estimates of the rupture geometry and source directivity of the Le Teil earthquake based on differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry and seismic data. We find that almost two centuries of mass removal at a nearby cement quarry likely provided the required stress change to hasten the occurrence of the Le Teil earthquake by more than 18,000 years. We suggest that further mass removal in the area might lead to even stronger earthquakes, by activating deeper sectors of the same fault plane

Author Correction: Coincident locations of rupture nucleation during the 2019 Le Teil earthquake, France and maximum stress change from local cement quarrying

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00109-

Ground deformation and source geometry of the 30 October 2016 Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquake (Central Italy) investigated through seismological data, DInSAR measurements, and numerical modelling

We investigate the Mw 6.5 Norcia (Central Italy) earthquake by exploiting seismological data, DInSAR measurements, and a numerical modelling approach. In particular, we first retrieve the vertical component (uplift and subsidence) of the displacements affecting the hangingwall and the footwall blocks of the seismogenic faults identified, at depth, through the hypocenters distribution analysis. To do this, we combine the DInSAR measurements obtained from coseismic SAR data pairs collected by the ALOS-2 sensor from ascending and descending orbits. The achieved vertical deformation map displays three main deformation patterns: (i) a major subsidence that reaches the maximum value of about 98 cm near the epicentral zones nearby the town of Norcia; (ii) two smaller uplift lobes that affect both the hangingwall (reaching maximum values of about 14 cm) and the footwall blocks (reaching maximum values of about 10 cm). Starting from this evidence, we compute the rock volumes affected by uplift and subsidence phenomena, highlighting that those involved by the retrieved subsidence are characterized by significantly higher deformation values than those affected by uplift (about 14 times). In order to provide a possible interpretation of this volumetric asymmetry, we extend our analysis by applying a 2D numerical modelling approach based on the finite element method, implemented in a structural-mechanic framework, and exploiting the available geological and seismological data, and the ground deformation measurements retrieved from the multi-orbit ALOS-2 DInSAR analysis. In this case, we consider two different scenarios: the first one based on a single SW-dipping fault, the latter on a main SW-dipping fault and an antithetic zone. In this context, the model characterized by the occurrence of an antithetic zone presents the retrieved best fit coseismic surface deformation pattern. This result allows us to interpret the subsidence and uplift phenomena caused by the Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquake as the result of the gravitational sliding of the hangingwall along the main fault plane and the frictional force acting in the opposite direction, consistently with the double couple fault plane mechanism

Comment on “The 21 August 2017 M d 4.0 Casamicciola Earthquake: First Evidence of Coseismic Normal Surface Faulting at the Ischia Volcanic Island” by

We are writing this comment because many aspects of the analysis presented by Nappi et al. (2018) are debatable. In particular, a major issue is relevant to the conclusion suggested by Nappi et al. (2018) about a seismogenic normal fault with northward dip. This finding is not well‐founded because the authors do not really present a causative source model. In addition, their statement is clearly not consistent with the Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR), Global Positioning System (GPS) and seismological measurements presented in the article previously published by De Novellis et al. (2018). Moreover, we also report an evident error in the geologic map proposed by Nappi et al. (2018, their fig. 3).Published313-3156V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischioJCR Journa

Corrigendum: Interpretation of spatiotemporal gravity changes accompanying the earthquake of 21 August 2017 on Ischia (Italy)

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The 21 August 2017 Ischia (Italy) Earthquake Source Model Inferred From Seismological, GPS, and DInSAR Measurements

The causative source of the first damaging earthquake instrumentally recorded in the Island of Ischia, occurred on 21 August 2017, has been studied through a multiparametric geophysical approach. In order to investigate the source geometry and kinematics we exploit seismological, Global Positioning System, and Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar coseismic measurements. Our results indicate that the retrieved solutions from the geodetic data modeling and the seismological data are plausible; in particular, the best fit solution consists of an E-W striking, south dipping normal fault, with its center located at a depth of 800 m. Moreover, the retrieved causative fault is consistent with the rheological stratification of the crust in this zone. This study allows us to improve the knowledge of the volcano-tectonic processes occurring on the Island, which is crucial for a better assessment of the seismic risk in the area.Published2193-22023T. Sorgente sismicaJCR Journa

Interpretation of spatiotemporal gravity changes accompanying the earthquake of 21 August 2017 on Ischia (Italy)

We analyse spatiotemporal gravity changes observed on the Ischia island (Italy) accompanying the destructive earthquake of 21 August 2017. The 29 May 2016 to 22 September 2017 time-lapse gravity changes observed at 18 benchmarks of the Ischia gravimetric network are first corrected for the gravitational effect of the surface deformation using the deformation-induced topographic effect (DITE) correction. The co-seismic DITE is computed by Newtonian volumetric integration using the Toposk software, a high-resolution LiDAR DEM and the co-seismic vertical displacement field derived from Sentinel-1 InSAR data. We compare numerically the DITE field with its commonly used Bouguer approximation over the island of Ischia with the outcome that the Bouguer approximation of DITE is adequate and accurate in this case. The residual gravity changes are then computed at gravity benchmarks by correcting the observed gravity changes for the planar Bouguer effect of the elevation changes at benchmarks over the same period. The residual gravity changes are then inverted using an inversion approach based on model exploration and growing source bodies, making use of the Growth-dg inversion tool. The found inversion model, given as subsurface time-lapse density changes, is then interpreted as mainly due to a co-seismic or post-seismic disturbance of the hydrothermal system of the island. Pros and weak points of such interpretation are discussed